How is churn predicted?

A breakdown of churn prediction for sports

Anthem’s churn models process user bet settlement data in real time. After a bet settles, the churn models ingest this data and evaluate the player’s experience based on various attributes (attributes may change depending on the operators’ data and preferences)

Player Experience: (Attributes)

• BetId: TicketId
• SelectionIds: NON-WINNING Ticket Selection ItemIDs
• lossPct: Amount lost as a percentage of the highest among the 5 previous losses
• Bets24h: Number of bets placed in the last 24 hours
• BetsPerDay: Average number of bets per day
• ActiveDays: Activity in the last 7 days
• ActiveDaysPerWeek: Average activity per week
• Stakes24h: Total stake amount in the last 24 hours
• StakePerDay: The average stake per day
• StakeAmount: The stake amount of the triggering ticket
• BetType: The type of the triggering ticket/bet
• TotalOdds: The total odds of the current triggering ticket
• LossAmount: The loss amount of the existing triggering ticket
• BetsLost: Number of consecutive lost bets
• BetsLostLossAmount: The cumulative loss amount from a series of consecutive lost bets
  
  

Suppose a player is identified as a potential churner. In that case, a reason code is assigned to the player and an output message (API payload) is sent back to the operator enabling the operator to take appropriate actions.

Reason codes:

Here are some of the reason codes Anthem assigns to players that determine why a user is likely to churn (click on each of them to see their description in our glossary)

• Bad beat
• Significant Loss 
• Consecutive Loss
• Reduced activity
• Reduced frequency
• Reduced Spend­
• Other

Here’s an example of an output message sent to the operator - API Payload:

{

   "reasonCode": 2,

              "schema": 3,

              "playerId": 2620637,

   "sessionKey": "527493046",

             "expirationTime": 1670317250278,

   "playerExp": {

                          "betId": "527493046",

                          "selectionIds": "1163504926,1163504927",

                          "lossPct": 0.25,

                          "bets24h": 1,

                           "betsPerDay": 5,

                          "activeDays": 7,

                          "activeDaysPerWeek": 4,

                            "stakes24h": 3.32,

                            "stakePerDay": 18.702222222222222,

                            "stakeAmount": 4.4,

                           "betType": "AKO",

                            "totalOdds": 2.18,

                           "lossAmount": -5,

                           "betsLost": 3,

                           "betsLostLossAmount": -15

             }

}